Suprema — NL10–NL50 evening (BR)

Suprema is Brazil's largest poker app outside of regulated rooms. The NL10–NL50 evening segment is recreational-heavy — bots are explicitly banned on the player side, and the player ecology runs in the 80%+ recreational range. The pool diverges significantly from the GTO baseline on three structural axes: preflop limping frequency, paired-board defense, and turn over-folding to bigger sizings. SharkIQ measures these divergences from hand-history aggregates and ranks them by expected EV.

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What we're confident about

Suprema v1 baseline is built from operator-tagged hand-history samples (~5k decision points across the spot-class cluster) compared against GTO baseline frequencies from PioSolver / Monker exports. Pool-level HH aggregation — millions of decisions feeding the divergence engine — rolls out per pool through Q3. Where any individual divergence is sample-thin, its confidence label says so.

Ranked exploit adjustments

1. #1

   Isolate limpers wider from late position

   +3.5 bb/100

   +

   Suprema players limp UTG/MP at roughly 18% — about 18pp above any solver baseline. Each limp into the pot is a recreational hand with a capped, face-up range that you can hammer from the CO/BTN with an isolation raise to 5-6bb. Use a 2.5x-of-pot iso size to discourage cold-callers from coming along, and play more value-heavy hands in position (broadways, suited connectors with playability, suited Ax). When the limper calls and the flop comes A-high or K-high, c-bet aggressively. When they limp-3-bet, fold everything except premiums — that's a 100% value range in this pool.

   Confidence: Directionally robust — limping at recreational club apps is one of the most consistently documented tells. Magnitude estimate (~18% limp rate) is operator synthesis, not measured.

   ›Supporting divergences (1)

   • UTG limp tendency: UTG limp tendency: pool limps 18.0pp more often than baseline
2. #2

   Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands

   +2.8 bb/100

   +

   Suprema's blinds defend tight enough that BTN can profitably open 55-60% of hands at NL10-NL50. BB 3-bet rates are well below baseline (about 9% vs 17%), and BB calls more often than 3-bets, which means you mostly play single-raised pots in position with skill edge. Add the suited junk and low pairs that solvers fold; pick up plenty of small pots when the BB checks the flop and you c-bet a wide range. The marginal hands you add (e.g. T7s, Q6s, low suited gappers) earn more from the BB's passive postflop play than they lose to her wide call range.

   Confidence: Two effects compound: BB folds preflop more often than baseline AND folds to c-bet more often than baseline on dry boards. Confidence on the COMPOSITE adjustment is MEDIUM.

   ›Supporting divergences (3)

   • BTN open: BTN open: pool opens 12.0pp more often than baseline
   • BB 3-bet vs BTN open: BB 3-bet vs BTN open: pool 3-bets 8.0pp less often than baseline
   • BB fold vs BTN open: BB fold vs BTN open: pool folds 15.0pp less often than baseline
3. #3

   Double barrel turn way more than baseline

   +4.2 bb/100

   +

   The single biggest source of EV against the Suprema pool: villains call flop c-bets too wide hoping to improve (fold-to-flop-cbet at ~26% vs 40% baseline), then GIVE UP the turn when they miss (fold-to-double-barrel at ~68% vs 55% baseline). Translation: their flop call range is mostly drawing hands and weak pairs. The turn is when they make the discipline mistake. Barrel ANY brick turn, ANY overcard turn that improves your range, and especially any card that completes obvious draws so they fold their pair-or-better hopes. Use a 60-75% pot turn size. Bigger feels less convincing as a bluff and gets more folds than expected from this pool.

   Confidence: The fold-to-flop-cbet → fold-to-turn-barrel sequence is documented across recreational pools globally. Suprema-specific magnitude is operator estimate.

   ›Supporting divergences (2)

   • SRP caller fold vs c-bet, dry board: SRP caller fold vs c-bet, dry board: pool folds to c-bets 14.0pp less often than baseline
   • SRP caller fold to double barrel: SRP caller fold to double barrel: pool folds to c-bets 13.0pp more often than baseline
4. #4

   Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV

   +3.0 bb/100

   +

   The pool over-folds rivers to big bets when they haven't improved (fold-to-river-jam ~72% vs 52% baseline). Your linear value bets get paid more than baseline at almost every river spot — second-pair-top-kicker becomes a clear three-street value hand, ace-high turns into a thin value bet on blank rivers more often than baseline. For triple barrels as bluffs: only do it on coordinated boards where their flop calling range is drawy. Don't triple-barrel into static low-card boards — they may have hit something stationary they refuse to fold (small pocket pair, 2nd pair). Their over-fold to river jams is for HIGH-WET boards where they were calling with draws and other speculative holdings.

   Confidence: Confidence LOW-MEDIUM. The 'pool over-folds river to jam' pattern is well-documented in recreational pools but Suprema-specific magnitude needs HH validation.

   ›Supporting divergences (2)

   • Bluff catch facing river jam: Bluff catch facing river jam: pool folds 20.0pp more often than baseline
   • SRP PFR triple barrel, brick river: SRP PFR triple barrel, brick river: pool triple barrels 15.0pp more often than baseline
5. #5

   Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff

   +2.5 bb/100

   +

   Suprema pool's river check-raise as a bluff is essentially zero (~1.5% vs 4% baseline). When you c-bet flop, c-bet turn, then face a river check-raise, fold everything except absolute nuts. This is a discipline pattern: pool simply doesn't have a check-raise-bluff range constructed. Their check-raise on the river is the nuts or near-nuts ~95% of the time. The standard "bluff-catch with a marginal hand" line is incinerating money against this pool. Same applies to flop check-raises: 4% vs 9% baseline. When they check-raise, slow down with everything except top-pair-top-kicker-plus and made hands.

   Confidence: Directional certainty high (passive pools rarely build bluff check-raise ranges). Magnitude estimate operator-synthesized.

   ›Supporting divergences (2)

   • SRP caller check-raise river as bluff: SRP caller check-raise river as bluff: pool check-raises 2.5pp less often than baseline
   • SRP caller check-raise vs c-bet, dry: SRP caller check-raise vs c-bet, dry: pool check-raises 5.0pp less often than baseline
6. #6

   3-bet wider OOP, especially from the SB and BB

   +1.8 bb/100

   +

   BB only 3-bets the BTN at ~9% vs 17% baseline, and similarly under-3-bets the CO. This means the pool's BB call range is HUGE and their fold range is too narrow. While this seems to argue against 3-betting them ("they call too much"), the opposite is true for SB/BB → late position: when YOU 3-bet from the blinds, the late-position opener faces a population that 3-bets at half baseline frequency. They under-defend (don't 4-bet enough) and over-fold to your 3-bet because they read your 3-bet as "tight". Bluff 3-bet hands like A4s, A5s, KQo from SB and BB more than baseline. Capture dead money preflop. When called, your equity realisation in 3-bet pots OOP is still positive because pool's postflop play in 3BPs is below-baseline aggression.

   Confidence: MEDIUM confidence: BR pool's blind-vs-late under-aggression is documented across multiple third-party reviews.

   ›Supporting divergences (2)

   • BB 3-bet vs BTN open: BB 3-bet vs BTN open: pool 3-bets 8.0pp less often than baseline
   • BB 3-bet vs CO open: BB 3-bet vs CO open: pool 3-bets 6.0pp less often than baseline
7. #7

   Skip flop c-bets on wet boards when you're capped

   +1.0 bb/100

   +

   Pool c-bets wet straight/2-flush boards at ~62% vs ~42% baseline — they auto-cbet. Use this against them as a CALLER: float more wet boards in position, knowing they'll over-fold the turn when their c-bet bluffs don't improve. For you as PFR on wet boards: do the opposite. Cbet only the strong portion of your range. Pool calls flop too wide and folds turn — but when YOU c-bet a wet board with junk, you're betting into too many implied-equity calls, and pool's turn-barrel discipline is YOUR discipline as PFR (most regs auto-barrel turns even when they shouldn't). Lean toward checking back marginal flops on wet boards as PFR, attack as caller on wet boards.

   Confidence: LOW confidence. This is the most speculative adjustment — wet-board cbet pool tendency is operator inference, would need HH data to validate magnitude.

   ›Supporting divergences (1)

   • SRP IP c-bet, wet straight texture: SRP IP c-bet, wet straight texture: pool c-bets 20.0pp more often than baseline

All published divergences (17)