Suprema — NL10–NL50 evening (BR) — Spot catalog

Showing 3 · of 21 total

• RIVERBTN vs BB · Jh9h+1.8 bb/100

  The BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, so they float flop and then arrive at river with many capped, ace-less holdings that over-fold to thin IP stabs on brick runouts. Our wider BTN open (12pp over baseline) creates more of these single-raised pots where a one-third river bet folds out weak pairs and Qx without a diamond more often than GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.0 bb (33%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• RIVERBTN vs BB · Kh8h+1.1 bb/100

  Second pair top kicker performs as a clear three-street value hand here because the pool arrives at the river with many weak pairs and ace-highs after over-calling earlier streets. SRP PFR triple barrels occur 15.0pp more often than baseline, so their ranges are wider/weaker on rivers and pay off larger linear value bets more than solver expectation. Upsizing to 60–70% captures extra value versus capped pairs and 9x that won’t fold at the same rate as GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 14 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERBTN vs BB · KsJd+5.1 bb/100

  On paired boards where a flush completes, the pool’s river check-raise is almost never a bluff (check_raise_frequency delta=-2.5pp vs baseline). Even a K-high flush is in terrible shape versus a range that is boats and As-high flushes. GTO may mix calls here, but folding prints in this environment.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff