Suprema — NL10–NL50 evening (BR) — Spot catalog

Showing 14 · of 21 total

• FLOPBTN vs BB · AsQc+0.9 bb/100

  BTN range is capped on this low, connected two-flush board and BB retains more two-pair/straight combos; betting AsQc with no spade bloats the pot against too many implied-equity calls. Given the pool’s SRP IP c-bet frequency is ~20 percentage points above baseline on wet textures, they also over-call versus c-bets here and over-fold turn after checks—so checking back protects range and realizes equity better than small-betting.

  EXPLOIT: Check back#7 Skip flop c-bets on wet boards when you're capped
• FLOPCO vs BB · KhJc+1.7 bb/100

  On dry K-high boards, GTO continues a fair amount versus a check-raise with KJ, but this pool’s flop check-raise bluff rate is far below baseline (check_raise_frequency delta=-5.0pp: 4% vs 9%). Their raises are weighted to two-pair/sets and strong Kx, so folding the marginal top-pair saves money. Slow down or fold everything shy of TPTK+ here.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff
• FLOPSB vs BB · AdQh+1.4 bb/100

  As the PFR OOP on 9d-8d-6c you’re range-capped while BB has more two-pair/straights and strong draws; betting AdQh feeds equity to a pool that calls flop too wide on wet boards. The same population over-cbets IP on these textures by ~20pp relative to baseline, so don’t mirror that mistake—check range-protect and realize equity, leveraging turn cards to attack their imbalanced ranges later.

  EXPLOIT: Check#7 Skip flop c-bets on wet boards when you're capped
• TURNBTN vs BB · Qs6s+1.3 bb/100

  Because the BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, their call-heavy preflop range is capped and folds too much versus small turn barrels on paired, dry textures. BTN is opening 12pp over baseline in this pool, so marginal adds like Q6s gain EV by pressing these fold-prone nodes with a 35% stab rather than giving a free card.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.2 bb (35%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• TURNCO vs BB · Ad9c+5.1 bb/100

  This Tc completes obvious broadway threats; the pool’s flop calls are stuffed with Qx/Jx and weak draws, but they over-fold the turn by +13.0pp vs baseline when the scare card lands. Because they also under-fold the flop (-14.0pp), your second barrel on this card class with Ad9c massively increases fold equity. Size up to ~70% to maximize immediate folds from pair+draw and one-pair hands.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 70% pot#3 Double barrel turn way more than baseline
• TURNSB vs BB · Ah7s+2.3 bb/100

  On 9h5h2c-5d the front-door hearts miss and the board pairs low—classic brick where population gives up after over-calling flop (-14.0pp) and then over-folding turn by +13.0pp. A 70–75% barrel from SB punishes capped floats and weak 9x/2x that don’t want to continue on a paired board. Even with Ah7x, pressure here prints in this pool.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 75% pot#3 Double barrel turn way more than baseline
• TURNUTG vs BB · QhJh+3.3 bb/100

  Pool callers under-fold the flop (-14.0pp vs baseline) then over-fold the turn (+13.0pp vs baseline). On K72r-8c their flop calls are heavy with 7x, 2x, and broadways that whiff this brick, so a 70% barrel generates significant folds. GTO often gives up QJ here, but in this pool the second shell is printing.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 70% pot#3 Double barrel turn way more than baseline
• RIVERBTN vs BB · Jh9h+1.8 bb/100

  The BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, so they float flop and then arrive at river with many capped, ace-less holdings that over-fold to thin IP stabs on brick runouts. Our wider BTN open (12pp over baseline) creates more of these single-raised pots where a one-third river bet folds out weak pairs and Qx without a diamond more often than GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.0 bb (33%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• RIVERBTN vs BB · Kh8h+1.1 bb/100

  Second pair top kicker performs as a clear three-street value hand here because the pool arrives at the river with many weak pairs and ace-highs after over-calling earlier streets. SRP PFR triple barrels occur 15.0pp more often than baseline, so their ranges are wider/weaker on rivers and pay off larger linear value bets more than solver expectation. Upsizing to 60–70% captures extra value versus capped pairs and 9x that won’t fold at the same rate as GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 14 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERBTN vs BB · KsJd+5.1 bb/100

  On paired boards where a flush completes, the pool’s river check-raise is almost never a bluff (check_raise_frequency delta=-2.5pp vs baseline). Even a K-high flush is in terrible shape versus a range that is boats and As-high flushes. GTO may mix calls here, but folding prints in this environment.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff
• RIVERCO vs BB · As7s+2.2 bb/100

  High-wet flop (two hearts) and turn completing the front-door flush create a river where BB’s range is saturated with one-heart hands and busted gutters. Pool folds 20.0pp more often than baseline facing river jams, so overbet jamming your air (without a heart blocker) prints. GTO mixes or gives up some of these; here the jam leverages their over-folding to realize full fold equity.

  EXPLOIT: Jam 85 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERMP vs BB · AsQd+0.7 bb/100

  On a double-paired board, many of BB’s flop/turn floats are counterfeited, making ace-high a thin value candidate. Because SRP PFR triple barrels are 15.0pp above baseline in this pool, BB reaches rivers with more bluff-catchers and marginal pairs than solver assumes, and they check to you often. A small stab prints value versus 3x/underpairs and random broadways that won’t bluff themselves.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 6.5 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERSB vs BB · KdQh+2.3 bb/100

  This is the ideal coordinated runout for a triple-barrel bluff: BB calls flop/turn with many one-spade hands and pair+draws that hate facing a river shove. Pool folds 20.0pp more often than baseline versus river jams, so overbet-jamming your no-spade broadways realizes outsized fold equity. GTO gives up more with these exact blockers; here the pool’s over-fold lets you push maximum pressure profitably.

  EXPLOIT: Jam 63 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERUTG vs BB · KcQh+3.2 bb/100

  River check-raises in this pool are massively under-bluffed (check_raise_frequency delta=-2.5pp: 1.5% vs 4% baseline), so top pair on a double-paired board should just fold to the raise. GTO mixes some calls here with KQ, but population ranges are overwhelmingly boats and the occasional slowplayed monster. Folding preserves EV against a value-only check-raise range.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff