Suprema — NL10–NL50 evening (BR) — Spot catalog

Showing 7 · of 21 total

• PREFLOPBTN vs MP · KcJs+2.6 bb/100

  Versus MP’s limp, isolate wider on the BTN with a big 6bb size to get heads-up and deny the blinds profitable overcalls. This pool over-limps 18.0pp above baseline (limp_frequency ↑), so ranges are capped and call-heavy; a larger iso extracts more value and folds out dominated offsuit junk behind. GTO raises too, but the bigger sizing exploits population stickiness preflop and passivity postflop.

  EXPLOIT: Iso-raise to 6bb (≈2.5x pot)#1 Isolate limpers wider from late position
• FLOPBTN vs CO · Kh9h+1.7 bb/100

  On Qh-Jh-5s the pool over-cbets by about 20 percentage points versus baseline, leaving their range over-bluff heavy and under-protected. Floating K9hh realizes strong equity and leverages their tendency to over-fold later streets when bluffs don’t improve. Raising here performs fine in theory, but in this pool callers peel too wide versus flop raises, so the higher-EQ float captures more turn fold equity.

  EXPLOIT: Call 4.5bb#7 Skip flop c-bets on wet boards when you're capped
• FLOPBTN vs BB · AsQc+0.9 bb/100

  BTN range is capped on this low, connected two-flush board and BB retains more two-pair/straight combos; betting AsQc with no spade bloats the pot against too many implied-equity calls. Given the pool’s SRP IP c-bet frequency is ~20 percentage points above baseline on wet textures, they also over-call versus c-bets here and over-fold turn after checks—so checking back protects range and realizes equity better than small-betting.

  EXPLOIT: Check back#7 Skip flop c-bets on wet boards when you're capped
• TURNBTN vs BB · Qs6s+1.3 bb/100

  Because the BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, their call-heavy preflop range is capped and folds too much versus small turn barrels on paired, dry textures. BTN is opening 12pp over baseline in this pool, so marginal adds like Q6s gain EV by pressing these fold-prone nodes with a 35% stab rather than giving a free card.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.2 bb (35%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• RIVERBTN vs BB · Jh9h+1.8 bb/100

  The BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, so they float flop and then arrive at river with many capped, ace-less holdings that over-fold to thin IP stabs on brick runouts. Our wider BTN open (12pp over baseline) creates more of these single-raised pots where a one-third river bet folds out weak pairs and Qx without a diamond more often than GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.0 bb (33%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• RIVERBTN vs BB · Kh8h+1.1 bb/100

  Second pair top kicker performs as a clear three-street value hand here because the pool arrives at the river with many weak pairs and ace-highs after over-calling earlier streets. SRP PFR triple barrels occur 15.0pp more often than baseline, so their ranges are wider/weaker on rivers and pay off larger linear value bets more than solver expectation. Upsizing to 60–70% captures extra value versus capped pairs and 9x that won’t fold at the same rate as GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 14 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERBTN vs BB · KsJd+5.1 bb/100

  On paired boards where a flush completes, the pool’s river check-raise is almost never a bluff (check_raise_frequency delta=-2.5pp vs baseline). Even a K-high flush is in terrible shape versus a range that is boats and As-high flushes. GTO may mix calls here, but folding prints in this environment.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff