Suprema — NL10–NL50 evening (BR) — Spot catalog

Showing 7 · of 21 total

• RIVERBTN vs BB · Jh9h+1.8 bb/100

  The BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, so they float flop and then arrive at river with many capped, ace-less holdings that over-fold to thin IP stabs on brick runouts. Our wider BTN open (12pp over baseline) creates more of these single-raised pots where a one-third river bet folds out weak pairs and Qx without a diamond more often than GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.0 bb (33%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• RIVERBTN vs BB · Kh8h+1.1 bb/100

  Second pair top kicker performs as a clear three-street value hand here because the pool arrives at the river with many weak pairs and ace-highs after over-calling earlier streets. SRP PFR triple barrels occur 15.0pp more often than baseline, so their ranges are wider/weaker on rivers and pay off larger linear value bets more than solver expectation. Upsizing to 60–70% captures extra value versus capped pairs and 9x that won’t fold at the same rate as GTO assumes.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 14 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERBTN vs BB · KsJd+5.1 bb/100

  On paired boards where a flush completes, the pool’s river check-raise is almost never a bluff (check_raise_frequency delta=-2.5pp vs baseline). Even a K-high flush is in terrible shape versus a range that is boats and As-high flushes. GTO may mix calls here, but folding prints in this environment.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff
• RIVERCO vs BB · As7s+2.2 bb/100

  High-wet flop (two hearts) and turn completing the front-door flush create a river where BB’s range is saturated with one-heart hands and busted gutters. Pool folds 20.0pp more often than baseline facing river jams, so overbet jamming your air (without a heart blocker) prints. GTO mixes or gives up some of these; here the jam leverages their over-folding to realize full fold equity.

  EXPLOIT: Jam 85 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERMP vs BB · AsQd+0.7 bb/100

  On a double-paired board, many of BB’s flop/turn floats are counterfeited, making ace-high a thin value candidate. Because SRP PFR triple barrels are 15.0pp above baseline in this pool, BB reaches rivers with more bluff-catchers and marginal pairs than solver assumes, and they check to you often. A small stab prints value versus 3x/underpairs and random broadways that won’t bluff themselves.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 6.5 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERSB vs BB · KdQh+2.3 bb/100

  This is the ideal coordinated runout for a triple-barrel bluff: BB calls flop/turn with many one-spade hands and pair+draws that hate facing a river shove. Pool folds 20.0pp more often than baseline versus river jams, so overbet-jamming your no-spade broadways realizes outsized fold equity. GTO gives up more with these exact blockers; here the pool’s over-fold lets you push maximum pressure profitably.

  EXPLOIT: Jam 63 bb#4 Triple-barrel rivers selectively, but value-bet thin for huge EV
• RIVERUTG vs BB · KcQh+3.2 bb/100

  River check-raises in this pool are massively under-bluffed (check_raise_frequency delta=-2.5pp: 1.5% vs 4% baseline), so top pair on a double-paired board should just fold to the raise. GTO mixes some calls here with KQ, but population ranges are overwhelmingly boats and the occasional slowplayed monster. Folding preserves EV against a value-only check-raise range.

  EXPLOIT: Fold#5 Trust villain's river check-raise — it's never a bluff