Suprema — NL10–NL50 evening (BR) — Spot catalog

Showing 6 · of 21 total

• TURNBTN vs BB · Qs6s+1.3 bb/100

  Because the BB 3-bets 8pp less than baseline, their call-heavy preflop range is capped and folds too much versus small turn barrels on paired, dry textures. BTN is opening 12pp over baseline in this pool, so marginal adds like Q6s gain EV by pressing these fold-prone nodes with a 35% stab rather than giving a free card.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 3.2 bb (35%)#2 Widen BTN opens to 60%+ of hands
• TURNCO vs MP · AcJc+2.0 bb/100

  On a paired K turn after isolating a limper, apply pressure with a bigger second barrel; limp-calls lack strong Kx and overfold to heat. This pool’s elevated limp_frequency (+18.0pp vs baseline) means more capped, draw-heavy continues that hate big turn bets. A♣J♣ has strong equity and excellent blockers, so the larger sizing maximizes fold equity and value when called.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 15bb (67%)#1 Isolate limpers wider from late position
• TURNCO vs BB · Ad9c+5.1 bb/100

  This Tc completes obvious broadway threats; the pool’s flop calls are stuffed with Qx/Jx and weak draws, but they over-fold the turn by +13.0pp vs baseline when the scare card lands. Because they also under-fold the flop (-14.0pp), your second barrel on this card class with Ad9c massively increases fold equity. Size up to ~70% to maximize immediate folds from pair+draw and one-pair hands.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 70% pot#3 Double barrel turn way more than baseline
• TURNCO vs MP · KcJs+2.6 bb/100

  After floating a wet flop where the pool over-cbets by ~20pp versus baseline, their turn check frequency spikes and they over-fold unpaired broadways and weak pairs when pressured. KJs has two overs and a gutshot; a 66% stab punishes the auto-cbet-then-give-up line and prints folds while retaining decent equity when called. Theory mixes, but this pool’s flop over-cbet → turn under-barrel pattern makes the larger stab a clear winner.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 9.6bb (66%)#7 Skip flop c-bets on wet boards when you're capped
• TURNSB vs BB · Ah7s+2.3 bb/100

  On 9h5h2c-5d the front-door hearts miss and the board pairs low—classic brick where population gives up after over-calling flop (-14.0pp) and then over-folding turn by +13.0pp. A 70–75% barrel from SB punishes capped floats and weak 9x/2x that don’t want to continue on a paired board. Even with Ah7x, pressure here prints in this pool.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 75% pot#3 Double barrel turn way more than baseline
• TURNUTG vs BB · QhJh+3.3 bb/100

  Pool callers under-fold the flop (-14.0pp vs baseline) then over-fold the turn (+13.0pp vs baseline). On K72r-8c their flop calls are heavy with 7x, 2x, and broadways that whiff this brick, so a 70% barrel generates significant folds. GTO often gives up QJ here, but in this pool the second shell is printing.

  EXPLOIT: Bet 70% pot#3 Double barrel turn way more than baseline